A ‘what if’ piece of speculative fiction about a possible future.
// What might be the follow-on implications of the Russian military’s logistical failures during the invasion of Ukraine?
// 2035 - Welcome to Forensic Accounting lecture
Many of you are here because of a surge of interest in accounting in the mid-2020s, when you were in high school. I’m here to tell you that the realities of looking at where the money goes is not like it is portrayed in the movies or what you saw on YouTube. Sure, while there was a flurry of work on exposing crypto scams and influencers in the early 2020s, the real precipitating event for interest in forensic accounting was the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Early on in the war, media coverage focused on the logistical failures which severely hampered the Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine: Soldiers sent to war with 50 year old rations. Tanks out of fuel being towed by Ukrainian farm equipment. 40 kilometer stalled columns of troops and vehicles.
As Russia’s military ground to a halt through the end of 2022, a surge of near panic bounced through the halls of the Pentagon. That panic could be described as “we can’t look like the Russians”. The logistical failures pointed to a degree of Russian corruption many thought not possible in a modern military. Rocks put into fuel tanks to cover for the stolen fuel. Inventories triple or quadruple counted to cover for vehicles sold to warlords.
Calls to ensure that the US would not get caught with its pants around its ankles led to a surge of interest in tracking the over $770 billion annual US military budget. Most concerningly, the US military had failed every single annual audit since 2017. This concern over “are we ready?” became a major talking point taken up by both political parties on the 2022 and 2024 campaign trails.
Cable news pundits and TikTok insta-experts tore into analyzing military spending. 2022 and 2023 saw multiple massive scandals as the sloppiness of defense spending was revealed. It was easy pickings for politicians, journalists, and the interested public. A Navy warehouse not on the property books with $125 million of supplies. Purchases of $10,000 leather chairs. Backup parts purchased for weapon systems that had not yet been designed.
Which is why you are here. You saw the Insta posts and Tweets of “big fraud revealed”. You saw the campaign ads calling for “responsibly spending our tax dollars”. The public shaming of officials and subcontractors made for great media clips and large follower counts. Well I’m here to tell you that it doesn’t always go that way. But if you enjoy the puzzles, and want to make the world a better place, welcome. Now let's get to work.